Live Cattle (June)

June live cattle futures made new contract highs again in yesterday’s trade, but that strength failed to hold which led to weakness. Prices nailed the top end of resistance to a T and pulled back right to our pivot pocket (blind squirrel charting). That pivot pocket from 207.72-208.25 remains intact and will be watched very closely today, a failure here could trigger additional long liquidation. Cash trade was reported to be sharply higher again yesterday afternoon, but within the range of expectations most were talking about in the early morning session. 222 in the north and 218 in the south. Outside markets had a strong afternoon session which has seen follow-through overnight with some positive trade news and good earnings from Meta and Microsoft.

Resistance: 210.00-211.00**
Pivot: 207.72-208.25
Support: 203.25-204.20**, 199.60-199.975***, 195.65-196.07***

Daily Cattle and Beef Summary

Cutout values were softer on Wednesday afternoon with choice cuts 2.95 lower to 345.31 and select cuts 1.80 lower to 322.02. Slaughter on Wednesday was reported at 121k head.

The CME feeder Cattle Index is at 295.77 with the NBW Real-Time Index showing 296.03 as of this morning.

Weekly Export Sales

Net sales of beef were reported 12,900 MT for 2025 were up 25 percent from the previous week and 6 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily for Japan (4,000 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), South Korea (3,700 MT, including decreases of 500 MT), Mexico (1,400 MT), Taiwan (1,100 MT), and Canada (1,100 MT). Exports of 15,800 MT were up 20 percent from the previous week and 9 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to South Korea (5,600 MT), Japan (4,900 MT), Mexico (1,500 MT), Taiwan (1,300 MT), and Canada (1,000 MT).

Seasonal Tendency Update
(updated 4.28.25)

Below is a look at historical price averages for June futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).

Commitment of Traders Update
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net buyers of roughly 12k futures/options contracts, expanding their net long position to 120,460 futures and options contracts.

See the charts here: https://bluelinefutures.com/2025/05/01/cattle-futures-struggled-on-wednesday-despite-a-higher-cash-trade/

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