S&P 500

(ESH25) 

The chart below is key to this analysis.

There are two methods we use at ONE44 to find support and resistance in the markets.

The first are major Gann squares, these are the yellow horizontal lines on the chart. On the chart you can see where the market turned multiple times at these levels.

The second is Fibonacci retracements and this is what most of this post will be about.

There are a few basic rules when using the Fibonacci retracements with the ONE44 rules and guidelines.

This is the short version.

A 38.2% level keeps the trend intact and new highs/lows should follow.

A 23.6% level shows the market is extremely strong, or weak.

A 61.8% level can cause wide swings and keep the market in a trading range.

A 78.6% level can send it 78.6% of where it just came from and even be the end or start of a Bull market.

ESH25

12/29/24

From last week,

The December contract hit the second support area of 23.6% back to the 8/5/24 low at 5880.00 and the 5850.25 major Gann square and then on Friday with March being the top contract it hit the same support area and rallied over $90, if this is all the market can setback they can take it right back to a new high. There will be an adjustment period for the March contract, because the 38.2% levels below are almost $90 apart, so the true violation of the current trend will be at 5735.00 on the Nearby contract. We still believe the Gann square cluster above can cause a longer term top.

Use 5980.00 as the swing point for the week.

Above it, look for 78.6% back to the high at 6112.00, a failure to make a new high in this area can be another reason for strong selloff. On an extended....

NOW, 

The rally after getting right back above 23.6% back to the 8/5/24 failed to make a new high and fell just short of the 78.6% retracement at 6112.00 (6107.50 high). Following the ONE44 78.6% rule we know this is where a lot of Bull runs end (and start) add to this the December and March both hit the Gann square cluster that can cause a longer term top, so 6112.00 will be important in the longer term picture. The late day rally after the break on Friday hit 38.2% of the setback at 6032.00, this will be the key level to start the week.

Use 6032.00 as the swing point for the week.

Above it, the short term target is 78.6% of Friday's setback at 6083.00. On an extended move higher you still have to watch 78.6% at 6112.00 and then the top of the major Gann square cluster at 6142.00. If all of these levels are taken out, then we have only major Gann squares above to look for resistance and then use as the swing point when closed above, the next one is 6290.75.

Below it, the short term target is 78.6% back to the 12/20/24 low at 5918.00. The longer term target is 23.6% back to the 2022 low at 5500.00, before then is 38.2% back to the 8/5/24 low on the nearby chart at 5735.00, holding this level would be a positive sign and they could retest the high from it.

We have done 44 videos on how to use the Fibonacci retracements with the ONE44 rules and guidelines. These Videos are worth watching even if it is not in the market you are trading, as the ONE44 rules and guidelines are the same for every market. You will also see why we believe the Fibonacci retracements are the underlying structure of ALL markets.

Here is the latest.

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Our goal is to not only give you actionable information, but to help you understand why we think this is happening based on pure price analysis with Fibonacci retracements, that we believe are the underlying structure of all markets and Gann squares.

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You can also follow us on YouTube for more examples of how to use the Fibonacci retracements with the ONE44 rules and guidelines.
 

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