DTN Midday Grain Comments 09/18 12:08
Grains Mixed at Midday
The mixed trade at midday has corn near the daily highs, beans near the lows.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market is lower with the Dow 50 lower. The dollar index is 10
points higher. Interest rate products are higher. Energies are lower with crude
down $0.80. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are higher with gold up
Corn is near the daily highs at midday up 2 to 3 cents, which has us up
around a nickel from the overnight lows. Weather remains a short-term non-issue
with warm conditions and some wet weather in areas to move along late crop
development and maturity before trending drier towards October. Corn basis is
expected to continue to see pressure with harvest underway in more areas.
Ethanol margins have improved but remain soft with the weekly report expected
to show steady to lower production and stocks. On the December contract,
support is at the 20-day at 3.65 with the upper Bollinger Band above trade at
Soybean trade is 5 to 6 lower at midday in slow trade with futures near the
daily lows nearly a dime off the high. Meal is $2.50 lower with bean oil
slightly higher. Crush margins remain good, but the bull argument needs a
positive export story. A positive export story obviously needs China coming
forward. Economically U.S. export competitiveness is improving, which may be
just as important as trade negotiations to get some business done. Bean basis
remains flat in the interior. South American currencies remain weak as planting
season draws closer with dry weather to start. On the November chart we near
support at the 100-day at $8.86 and the upper Bollinger band at 8.98, and the
200-day at 9.15 as resistance.
Wheat trade is 3 to 6 cents higher with trade at midday back to the upper
part of our weekly range. The Kansas City/Chicago spread is more than 80 cents.
The corn/HRW spread is hanging around the 35-40-cent area. So Kansas City wheat
is competitive on the world market but we need to see the business and more
buyers to move the board out away from our lows with feed competitiveness still
in place for the Southern Plains. The December Kansas City chart support is at
the 20-day at $3.99 1/2, with resistance at the upper Bollinger Band at 4.13.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at email@example.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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