Cattle on Feed Report     09/25  14:06

Sept. 1 Cattle on Feed Up 4% 

By DTN Staff
                      USDA Actual   Average Estimate       Range
On Feed Sept. 1           104%          103.5%      102.2-103.9%
Placed in Aug.            109%          106.0%      100.8-110.0%
Marketed in Aug.           97%           96.7%        95.7-97.5%

OMAHA (DTN) -- Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter 
market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 
or more head totaled 11.4 million head on Sept. 1, 2020. The 
inventory was 4% above Sept. 1, 2019. This is the highest Sept. 
1 inventory since the series began in 1996, USDA NASS reported 
on Friday.

Placements in feedlots during August totaled 2.06 million head, 
9% above 2019. Net placements were 2.00 million head. During 
August, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 
pounds were 405,000 head, 600-699 pounds were 335,000 head, 700-
799 pounds were 470,000 head, 800-899 pounds were 522,000 head, 
900-999 pounds were 230,000 head, and 1,000 pounds and greater 
were 95,000 head.

Marketings of fed cattle during August totaled 1.89 million 
head, 3% below 2019.

Other disappearance totaled 55,000 head during August, 10% below 
2019.

DTN ANALYSIS

"Earlier this spring when analyzing the Cattle on Feed reports, 
we observed the lightest placements ever seen since the report 
began back in 1996," said DTN Livestock Analyst ShayLe Stewart. 
"As we've discussed multiple times, cattle don't simply 
disappear -- they eventually work their way back into the 
system, and September's COF report is evidence of that exactly.
 
"The total number of cattle on feed was 11.4 million head, up 4% 
from last year and is the highest Sep. 1 inventory since the 
series began back in 1996. The total number of placements stole 
the report's attention, though, being upward of 9% higher than a 
year ago, totaling 2.06 million head. 

"When analyzing September's COF report, it's important to 
remember a couple of different things and to draw a few specific 
conclusions. First, these reports are incredibly helpful in 
analyzing changes year over year. But it's also important to 
remember the context of years past. Last year at this time, the 
packing plant fire that happened in Holcomb, Kansas, still had 
the marketplace in a frenzy. Producers were concerned about 
putting their calves in feedlots as they wondered how the 
packing industry was going to work through supplies with one 
less plant operating. In the September 2019 COF report, 
placements were down 9% from 2018 levels, totaling 1.82 million 
head.
 
"Secondly, Friday's report shouldn't come as a bewildering shock 
to the marketplace or its participants. Highs are followed by 
lows, and conversely, the same applies. When placements were at 
record lows earlier this spring, the first conclusion that 
should have been noted was that, at some point down the road, 
higher placements would be discovered.
 
"And, lastly, when analyzing the different weights of Friday's 
placements, it's imperative to realize that the marketplace will 
carry over a large portion of these cattle into 2021."

**

DTN subscribers can view the full Cattle on Feed reports in the 
Livestock Archives folder under the Markets menu. The report is 
also available at https://www.nass.usda.gov/.